Raw Doggin' It

Two observations led me to think about the question of raw cards this week. First, I have been approached a few times by dealers looking to buy lesser slabbed cards in bulk. Second, I have been watching prices soar at auction on midgrade cards in slabs and on raw cards.

Back before COVID, if you sent in a mid-tier postwar HOFer and it came back a 3-4-5, it was junk. Every show had at least one table filled with midgrade cards like that, usually for five bucks each. It was the Island of Misfit Toys, the disappointments and leftovers from submissions. No one wanted them. That paradigm has flipped. Not only are they selling now, but they are also selling for as much as $35 each. That explains why I am getting barraged with inquiries from dealers looking to purchase stacks of midgrade slabbed cards on the cheap (should I be insulted that they are asking me for ‘crappy’ cards?).

What is going on with these cards?

I believe that it boils down to two things: the cost of high grade cards and grading costs. As to the former, we are all familiar with the COVID boom and the modest retrenchment since. I used to collect in the 7-8 range; doesn’t fit my budget now. I replaced vastly appreciated cards that I sold into the surge with lower grade but presentable examples. Hell, on one deal I replaced the card I sold with a vg-ex example at 10% of the cost and bought the run of 1952 Topps high number HOFers (not Mantle, Robinson, Mathews or Wilhelm, obviously) with the profits. That card has lost 75% of its value since its COVID high but remains 3x over its pre-COVID price. That seems to be the story of vintage across the board. It may have come down since 2022, but there is no going back. Makes midgrade the only option for the budget-conscious slab collectors. Which is a reason why examples with technical flaws but great eye appeal are selling really, really well.

Then there are grading costs. Many of the cards I was able to sell into the surge were in slabs only because it was so cheap to get them into slabs. The economics of it made sense. PSA’s lowest tier specials were $8-$10 per card. Even the regular rate made it worthwhile to slab a $50-$100 card. Send in twenty of them, get lucky with a 9 or two, and you pay for the whole deal. I checked the rates the other day. Yikes! PSA's lowest current rate to grade pre-1992 cards is $19.99 for bulk, but to get that you have to have 20 cards and pay at least $149 for the PSA Collector's Club (which amortizes across the cards because they offer a dumb $60 credit for Fanatics Live instead of grading credits like they used to). Or you can pay $24.99 a card and skip the club nonsense. Either way, add to that postage from you to PSA and PSA's ridiculously inflated return shipping costs, and we are at well over $30 per card. The cost has about doubled since my last order. That kills the economic incentive to send in the modest cards.

What this adds up to is a rational choice for collectors: buying a midgrade card for $30-$35 is paying a market equivalent price. Why send in your card when you can get one at the equivalent of just the grading costs and know exactly what you have?

An ancillary effect of the cost of slabbing is that it is no longer economically justifiable to slab commons from many mainstream Topps sets, especially with the roulette wheel that grading has become. Depending on which grader handles your card, an 8 could be anything from a 9 to a 6. “If a 6 turns out to be 9, I don’t mind”—Jimi Hendrix; yeah, but not vice versa. The only thing consistent about PSA is its inconsistency. That reduces the supply and boosts the price of existing graded commons.

I can’t do any of it. I can’t throw the dice at $25 a pop and I just can’t spend that kind of money on a slab for a vg-ex card that I can still pick up raw for a fraction of the price. It offends my old fart collector sensibilities. The only cards I am sending anywhere now are the rare ones that just need to be slabbed and will sell regardless of grade. So, I pivoted to raw cards to fill my Jones for mainstream collecting.

I am not alone. Raw cards are the beneficiaries of the fantastical inflation of card grading costs. Some eBay dealers with reputations for accurate grading are reaping the rewards, pulling damn near graded card prices for raw cards. I’ve even seen some of that with my sales. Some of my ungraded boxing offerings of late have been hotly contested and have sold for much stronger prices than I would have expected. Makes all the sense in the world when slabs of the same cards are offered for three figures minimum. But the price of most raw cards remains low. I recently picked up a complete near mint (well, 90%) 1973 Topps Kung Fu set for a fraction of the price of a few slabbed high grade singles.

There are limits to the madness, and that is the area where I think it gets really interesting. There has been a huge surge of interest in signed cards. I always thought that they were fun and cool, and I spent a lot of time in autograph lines back in the 1980s-1990s having cards signed, when most autograph guests were under $20. I was often cautioned by ‘wiser’ collectors in the lines that I was ‘ruining’ my cards by having them signed. Really? How am I ruining my good condition 1933 Goudey Billy Herman by having him sign it? I never saw the logic in that, but it was the mindset. I once had Bob Feller sign a 1953 Bowman, and he asked me repeatedly if I was sure that I wanted him to sign a valuable card. I was.

I am happy, of course, that my ‘foolish’ predilection has become a popular thing, but I don’t get much signed now. It has become too expensive. The king of the signing price gouge is Sandy Koufax. He does small private signings a few times a year now. In its current incarnation, a Koufax signature on a standard card is $1,250.00. A rookie signature will set you back a cool $3,750.00. I love Koufax, but I wouldn’t pay $1,250.00 to have him sign my Exhibit card. No way. Not when I can buy a signed card for a fraction of that cost. That said, the incredible inflation of Koufax signings is starting to push up the prices of already-signed Koufax cards. A PSA authenticated 1964 Topps Giant sold recently for $405 and that was a bargain, relatively speaking. Run of the mill 1960s Topps signed Koufax cards in TPG holders are fetching nearly $1,000.00.

Koufax is the king of the price gouge, but Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the crown prince, another one who charges and gets insane prices at signings. He does shows and mail order, and it is a hot mess every time because he tiers his signatures on condition of the card. His sister/manager tries to jack everyone for extra fees. She will look over a PSA 2 and claim it is undergraded, then try and force the customer to pay a PSA 6 premium. And don’t get me started on Tom Brady’s insane signing costs with Fanatics.

What is not clear is whether the inflation at the top end will affect other signed card prices. But when you are looking at $125-$200 plus grading costs to get an autograph and have it graded and slabbed, it might be a good bet to pick up a few already signed slabbed cards if you can do it at a substantial discount to the cost to get a card signed and slabbed.

One final thought to ponder is rarity. Signed Koufax cards are not rare. Signed rare Koufax cards are rare. I might not be willing to pay $1,250.00 to have him sign my Exhibit card but it did cross my mind to have him sign my 1962 Pittsburgh Exhibit card or my 1958 Bell.