That Was The Year That Was

Happy New Year

Today, in a special edition of the blog, I call out some winners, losers, and surprises for 2023.

Let’s start with winners:

Vintage Photos: One of the bright spots in the hobby this year has been vintage photos. While photos had been going up during the pandemic boom, same as everything else, interest in quality photographs has continued to grow even as many other sectors have gone down. Photos with images used to make iconic cards reached breathtaking heights. A type 1 Ruth with the image on his 1921 Exhibit card sold for $114,000. I am especially impressed with the prices for non-baseball photos. Type 1 graded photos of non-baseball players set records. 1967-68 Lew Alcindor at UCLA ($940), 1967 Cassius Clay v. Ernie Terrell $1,831, 1957 Jim Brown $8,700, 1968 Gale Sayers snapshot $300. A 1961 Russell v Chamberlain action shot sold for $3,720; a raw one, not as nice, went for $360. Which brings me to my second big winner:

Photo Grading: The prices of type 1 graded photos are starting to become meaningful multiples of their raw counterparts. For 2024, I predict that this gulf will widen until it becomes a financial imperative to have PSA grade high quality photos if you are going to sell. When a really good photo was a few hundred dollars, it wasn’t a big deal, but now it is becoming one, even for non-baseball subjects. I know I am going to bite the bullet and submit my nicest photos to PSA. It finally makes financial sense to do so.

Publications: These had been a tough sell, historically. There were always devotees to magazine collecting but it never reached a level of interest sufficient classify it as an investment until CGC-slabbed mags started selling for real money, a trend that has gone way up this year. The key here is knowing which magazines to submit. We are still early in this trend. A desirable book (as the comic folks call them) might only be a break-even grade now, but if past performance in other areas is a guide, then it is only a matter of a short time before selling a raw top quality book leaves money on the table.

CGC: This company did not have an easy start-up. First, it was the CSG sports grading service with its rapidly-evolving flip designs, followed by the abandonment of the brand in favor of integrating the sports line into the CGC trading card brand. The combined brand has already lapped Beckett and is closing on SGC in the race for #2 against PSA. That success is likely to grow in 2024 as CGC rolls out its larger holders for tall boy cards. It already had a de facto soft open on the line when it encapsulated a 1953 Our Sports Magazine Sports Authority Card Jackie Robinson. Add that to the cozy relationships CGC has with Fanatics and you have a brand that is ready for big things.

Losers:

I think we have to start with postwar vintage cards, especially mainstream issues. The bubble on readily available postwar cards has definitely popped, but I do not think it has bottomed out just yet. We still have far too many investors sitting on declining assets and too many dealers sitting on overpriced inventory. When these two groups capitulate and start selling for whatever they can get, we will hit a market bottom. I think that will be some time in 2024.

Another big loser is the securitization model. As I commented upon a few months ago, the fractional interest trading markets fell apart and the securitization folks have ended up selling their wares via conventional auction houses.

Surprises:

I have one big surprise this year, which is the resurgence of local shows. A lot of people thought that eBay and online sales had killed off the show model for good. I know that when a few friends and I tried to get local shows going in SoCal about ten years ago, we were unable to sustain it. Post-pandemic, though, it seems that collectors have seen the value in going to card shows again with (gasp!) actual in-person other people. I worked a few shows in 2023 and have plans to do up to a dozen next year. Personally, I find this trend to be the most satisfying of all; in the 90s I would hit 2-6 local shows a weekend. I sure missed them.

Well, that’s my year-end screed. Happy New Year!